Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Variance.

Yeah, wow, variance. I don't really know what else to say, but...


... but April 1st is when I decided to play fulltime, and suffice it to say that I didn't get the best start. My confidence shot to hell, wondering what I was doing wrong, and generally freaking out about this decision to try to survive on poker income. Fortunately, April didn't last forever and May has been fantastic so far.

But, and this is really the lesson I took home from this, downswings aren't all bad. For me, they serve as a humbling setback, so that I don't forget to think about the game. Because even if I play well constantly, it's still valuable to reconsider some lines I take, to run filters in HEM, to try to achieve better results. Now, I made the image small and perhaps too small to discern any numbers, but from peak to bottom in April, there was a $6k drop (or 30 buy-ins) which is monstrous by almost any standards and definitely the biggest downswing I've had in my no-limit career so far. Still, when I thought through some lines I had taken, some hands where I feel I could have played better, what I found was this: I could have broken even for April. I don't think I could have won money - there was decidedly a lot of very unfortunate hands that took place and I don't think the best regular in the world would have come through this series of hands with a big winning month - but I could have played better in some spots.

And it's important to remember that even when I'm running hotter than the sun, there's still more money to be made in making my lines better, adding new tricks to my game, exploiting opponents more efficiently, sizing my bets just a wee bit better. And when nothing feels like it's working out for me, I can still make the loss smaller by playing better. I can always play better.

I'm really excited about my results for May so far and right now - knock on wood - I'm firmly on my way to my first 5-figure month. If I can manage a few of those before September 1st, I'll have passed this experiment of mine with flying colors.

--

Also, I'm headed for Las Vegas to play in the Main Event in July. I lucked myself into a seat through a Party Poker/CardsChat tournament which, for whatever reason, was only contended by seven other people. Talk about overlay. I'm nervous about playing in such a large tournament, and live no less, but I'm going there with the expectation of being knocked out on the first day and if I should happen to do better than that - even, heaven forbid, make the money - then that's great. But I'm viewing this as a paid-for experience and a free-ish trip to Las Vegas for me, Lori and Benjamin.

Anyone in the Linköping area who could be persuaded to look after our cats for two weeks?

No?

Bugger.

3 comments:

icemonkey9 said...

Holy cow, a 5 figure month. I'm really happy to read the content of your post after worrying about the title! Congratulations and I'd love to read a post about how you analyze your play or even hope that you create a video for CCers soon.

Hopefully I'll meet you in Vegas come WSOP time. Best of luck, skill and mental health!

WVHillbilly said...

Hey FP tried to sent this to you at CC but your PMs are disabled??

Anyway, I don't know if you read Tao of Poker but I thought Pauly's recent entry on where to eat during the WSOP might be helpful for you here in a few weeks.

http://taopoker.blogspot.com/2009_05_01_archive.html#1973922276097835516

Jurn8 said...

Hey nice job FP, a 5 figure month wow!! I can only dream lol!
Glad things are working out and a good post especially about the downswing and striving to make more money at every possible oppurtunity.
Good Luck FP
Jake