Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Don't Settle.

Regarding win-rates, I've heard that 1-2ptbb/100 at $.50/$1 no-limit and up is a very strong result over the long run. I agree, it is. Any win-rate above 0ptbb/100 is of course good.

But don't settle on 1-2pt/bb. Don't fall in the trap of thinking that just because you've achieved that win-rate over the past 50k hands that your focus should be on logging more hands and not working on your game. Thinking that you're "good enough" at poker is probably the best way to ensure that you soon won't be.

You think 5ptbb/100 longterm isn't achievable at the games you play? Do you table select? Do you actively leave tables that have less than two bad players sitting at them? Do you notice when your table becomes a tagfest of regulars?

And do you make mistakes? Small mistakes add up in an alarming rate in this game of ours. Do you adjust your opening raise size depending on the stacks of the people who are left to act? Do you sometimes accidently 3-bet someone and only after the fact notice that he only has 30BB left and is committed?

Do you make a standard call and notice too late - or not at all - that your opponent is the nittiest player ever?

Do you take extensive notes on players? Even on hands that you're not involved in? Do you notice when the weak player gets up and a strong player sits in? Do you know who the weakest players are at all the tables you're playing?

Do you know who the strong players are at all the tables you're playing, or do you just assume you can beat them all?

Do you know what range a specific opponent 3-bets with, not just with what frequency?

And, pertaining to specifically multitabling, do you ever time out on a table? Like, ever?

You can get better. And as I've stated in the past, win-rates aren't origo-based and linear. The implication in that post was that your win-rate may well drop by quite a bit more than half if you double the number of tables you play. But the flipside of the coin is that you may well increase your win-rate by more than a factor of two if you pay fewer tables.

I've scaled back down to playing only four tables, and while I can't speak for you, I can tell you without a shadow of a doubt that I'm making more than twice as much as I was when I was playing 8-9 tables. Table selection is difficult when I'm playing 8 tables because I have so few spare seconds to look for the fish. Note taking is extremely cumbersome. And always noticing immediately when someone leaves and someone else sits down is borderline impossible.

Don't be content with a 1.5ptbb/100 win-rate. The $100NL and $200NL games can be beaten for much more than that, of this I'm certain. And active table selection - and de-selection - is the biggest key by far in achieving a monster win-rate.

Don't settle.


MrTynKyn said...

What about to play 24 tables like most of us play ?
I doubt 4 tables players can make more money than 24 ( rakeback included)

Fredrik Paulsson: said...

"Most of us"?

What's your win-rate for the last 100k or so hands?

If you can beat the games you play without table selection, while making misclicks, while not paying sufficient attention to stack sizes and while only having very small windows to make your decision, and beat them for a considerable amount, then I think it's time to move up.

MrTynKyn said...

OK , when you are moving up , more regs are at the tables and more attention u have to put , but this happens NL400 and higher levels.

Im playing sng right now , I left the cash game . My whole city play 24 tables at medium levels ( up to NL200 ) , more than that is a bit difficult to play 24 tables. All of them have about 1-3 BB/100 , 24 tabling , plus a lot of rakeback ( rakeback is bigger than profit) over a big sample size.

Fredrik Paulsson: said...

Aha, you're an SnG player. Well, that's a different beast altogether, as it can be played much more on autopilot then cash games. Not to mention you don't really have people suddenly joining the game, so watching out for when the fish gets up and the shark sits down is not really something you have to worry about. :)